Domestic solar container demand forecast analysis report

How will the residential solar market grow over the next decade?

The residential solar market will continue to grow steadily, driven by retail rate inflation, resiliency concerns, product innovation, and third-party ownership momentum with a focus on ITC adder qualification. In our Base case forecast, the segment will more than triple over the next decade, adding more than 96 GWdc by 2035. 3.2. Commercial PV

How did the residential solar market perform in Q3 2024?

In Q3 2024, the residential solar market added 1,128 MW dc, a 39% year-over-year decline. Based on the first three quarters of the year, total residential installed capacity fell by 33% compared to the same timeframe in 2023, with 39 state markets contracting.

How will the solar market perform this year?

For utility-scale, more than half of the estimated capacity for the year is currently under construction. The pipeline of projects in late-stage development remains healthy and is expected to materialize this year. The residential solar market will experience some recovery this year, with 9% growth.

How did California's commercial solar market perform in 2024?

2024 was another record-breaking year for the commercial solar segment, with 2.1 GWdc of new capacity installed, an 8% increase from 2023. Last year, California represented 34% of the total national installed capacity, with 11% year-over-year growth, primarily due to NEM 2.0 installations coming online.

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This report (“Report”) and all Solar Market Insight® (“SMI”)TM reports are jointly owned by Wood Mackenzie and the SEIA® (jointly, “Owners”) and are protected by United States copyright and trademark laws and international copyright/intellectual property laws under applicable treaties and/or conventions.

How much solar capacity will the US have?

Our annual Year in review report includes a 10-year outlook for every segment. We expect cumulative US solar capacity to more than triple from 236 GWdc installed at year-end 2024, to 739 GWdc installed by 2035, with average annual capacity additions of more than 45 GWdc.